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  Title	Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Earnings Transcript
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  Published Date	Feb. 26, 2026, 10:33 a.m.
  Summary	Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Earnings Transcript Motley Fool Transcribing, The Motley Fool Thu, February 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM EST 32 min read AMBP Image source: The Motley Fool. Date Thursday, Feb. 2
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  Content	Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Earnings Transcript Motley Fool Transcribing, The Motley Fool Thu, February 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM EST 32 min read AMBP Image source: The Motley Fool. Date Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET Call participants Chief Executive Officer — Oliver Graham Chief Financial Officer — Stefan Schellinger Investor Relations — Stephen Lyons Full Conference Call Transcript Oliver Graham: Thanks, Stephen. 2025 was another year of strong performance for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., underpinned by shipments growth of over 3%, a favorable product mix and solid operational delivery. Our performance drove year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%, which significantly exceeded our initial guidance. A tight focus on cost control generated meaningful operational and overhead cost savings in the year. Our teams navigated the complexity of evolving demand patterns in terms of category mix and can sizes, to position our capacity to support our customers' growth. From a balance sheet perspective, we ended the year in a robust position with nearly $1,000,000,000 of liquidity. In the fourth quarter, we successfully raised $1,300,000,000 of green bonds, which Stefan will talk about in further detail later. Our strong performance in The Americas was driven by significant growth in North America volumes of 6% for the full year, and favorable mix through the high-growth energy drinks category, which more than offset the impact of softness in the Brazilian beer industry. In terms of European performance, operations and overhead cost savings as well as shipment growth in carbonated soft drinks and other growing categories offset the anticipated metal input cost headwind. In each of our regions, the beverage can continues to take share from other packaging substrates, advantaged by the can's convenience, branding potential, total cost of ownership, and sustainability credentials. This supports a continued positive outlook for global industry growth. Turning to Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s Q4 results by region in Europe, quarter revenue decreased by 1% to $539,000,000 or by 6% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to the impact of a negative IFRS 15 contract asset, partly offset by favorable volume mix effect and the pass-through of higher input costs to customers. Shipments grew by 1% for the quarter with good growth in carbonated soft and across our diverse range of growing categories as well as in the energy category. This was offset by a decline in beer shipments, which reflected a weaker industry backdrop as well as strong shipments in the prior year. For the full year, Europe shipments grew by 2% with growth in nonalcoholic beverages offsetting a flat performance in beer shipments. Indeed, the broad-based gains across growing categories such as ready-to-drink teas and coffees, canned wines, water and juices is testament to the ongoing innovation in the European beverage can market and to Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s success in supporting this growth. Story Continues We expect this growth to continue, helping to further diversify Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s portfolio. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 14% versus the prior year to $64,000,000, ahead of expectations. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA increased by 8% due to higher input cost recovery, which included a positive benefit from metal timing effects and favorable volume mix, partly offset by higher operations and overhead costs. Full year adjusted EBITDA of $272,000,000 further underlines the region's improving profitability. In 2026, we expect to grow volumes by around 3% in Europe, broadly in line with industry growth. Capacity remains tight in the region and we are therefore optimizing our network to better serve high demand can sizes for faster growing categories. We continue to review opportunities to support our customer growth, and we are progressing plans to add additional capacity in the attractive markets of Spain and the UK on a measured basis over the coming years. Both projects will add capacity into existing facilities with the related moderate increase in capital expenditure to be spread across financial years. These projects are underpinned by our favorable market positions and our confidence in Europe's growth outlook, supported by the can's low penetration rate, its attractive sustainability credentials and the previously mentioned innovation trends. Beverage packaging scanner data across each of the markets in which we operate highlighted several percentage points of share gain in 2025 for the beverage can versus glass in the beer category and versus plastic in carbonated soft drinks. In the Americas, revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 24% to $807,000,000, which reflected the pass-through of higher input costs to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest premium in North America as well as shipments growth. Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was ahead of expectations with a 6% decrease versus the prior year to $102,000,000 due to higher operations and overhead costs and lower input cost recovery, partly offset by favorable volume mix effects. In North America, shipments increased by 9% for the quarter despite the company having to navigate some supply chain disruption. For the full year, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. shipments grew by 6%. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s strong growth and outperformance in the year versus the market reflects our favorable customer and category portfolio mix, weighted towards nonalcoholic beverages and in particular our exposure to the high-growth energy category that represented 16% of our North America sales last year. Sparkling water is another notable category that performed well which represented 11% of our portfolio. By contrast beer represented only a mid single digit percentage of our portfolio. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low single digit percentage. As previously indicated on our third quarter results conference call, we expect some softness in North America for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. following some contract resets, largely related to specific footprint situation. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year with a small volume decline before we expect to return to growth in 2027, at least in line with the industry, on the back of additional contracted filling locations and our attractive portfolio. Retail scanner data so far this year is encouraging for continued beverage can industry growth into 2026. We would note that during the first quarter, some of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s and our customers' operations were negatively impacted by extreme adverse weather, which we assume we recover during the quarter. We also continue to manage a tight metal supply situation after disruptions in one of our major suppliers' rolling mill facilities. This is causing operational challenges and we incurred additional costs in Q4 which we anticipate will persist through the first half of the year ahead of the restoration of capacity as well as the ramp up of new domestic supply. In Brazil, fourth quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 4%, which represented a sequential improvement versus the third quarter but lagged the improvement in industry performance due to customer mix. Full year shipments declined by 2% in line with a weak overall industry volume reflecting consumer weakness and adverse weather during the winter months. Encouragingly, industry data confirms that the beverage can gained an additional percentage points of share in the beer packaging mix in 2025 in line with long term trends. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low to mid single digit percentage and for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s volumes to broadly track the market. I will now turn the call over to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks. Stefan Schellinger: Thanks, Ollie. We ended the year with a robust liquidity position of $964,000,000 and net leverage of 5.3 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The expected increase in the net leverage metric reflects the impact of a successful $1,300,000,000 equivalent green bond financing, which we closed in December. As a reminder, the proceeds of the financing were used to repay $600,000,000 of notes due in June 2027, repay the senior secured term loan of $269,000,000 and to redeem the preferred shares of €250,000,000. The headline leverage metric has increased as a result of the financing and the redemption of the preferred shares with debt. This refinancing has provided several benefits, including the lengthening of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s debt maturities with no bonds now maturing before September 2028, simplification of the capital structure and an annual cash savings of approximately $10,000,000 as the higher annual cash interest is more than offset by savings related to the previous annual preferred share dividend payments of approximately $25,000,000. We generated adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of €172,000,000 which was ahead of our guidance. During the quarter, both S&P and Fitch took positive credit rating action which reflects Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s strong operational and financial performance. In terms of 2026, we approximately expect the following for the various components of free cash flow: total CapEx of slightly above $200,000,000 including growth investments; lease principal repayments of approximately $150,000,000; cash interest of circa $220,000,000; cash tax of a little bit over $30,000,000; and a small outflow in working capital. Finally, today, we have announced our unchanged quarterly ordinary dividend of €0.10 per share. With that, I will hand it back to Ollie. Oliver Graham: Thanks Stefan. Just before moving to take your questions, I will just recap on Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s performance and some key messages. So firstly, adjusted EBITDA of $166,000,000 in the fourth quarter exceeded our guidance range of $147,000,000 to $162,000,000 with both segments performing ahead of expectations. Secondly, full year adjusted EBITDA of $739,000,000 was significantly ahead of our initially projected $675,000,000 to $695,000,000 range, and this was largely driven by strong volume performance and favorable customer mix in North America as well as favorable currency movements. And finally, the beverage can continues to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix supporting our growth. For 2026, we are guiding adjusted EBITDA in a range of $750,000,000 to $775,000,000, adjusted EBITDA growth expected to be driven by operational efficiencies and cost savings, shipments growth in line with industry growth in Europe and Brazil and improved category mix. We view 2026 as a transition year in North America for volumes ahead of an expected return to growth at least in line with the industry in 2027. In terms of guidance for the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $160,000,000 to $170,000,000, ahead of the prior year quarter of $160,000,000 on a constant currency basis. Having made these opening remarks, we will now proceed to take any questions that you may have. Operator: Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question. We will take our first question from Matthew Roberts with Raymond James. Matthew Roberts: Hey, Ali, Stephanie, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. The first question, maybe on the first quarter guide, could you just talk about some of the volume trends by region that underpin that, what you have seen in the first two months of the year? Any impacts you have seen from weather in the U.S., either in regard to facility outages or natural gas effects or volume impacts at customers? Oliver Graham: Sure. Hi, Matt. So, yes, we take it region by region. I think North America has a very good start to the year in our portfolio with some key customers, but it is true that January suffered particularly in the last week with the weather effects in the South of the country where we saw some of our facilities and some of our customer facilities unable to ship product. So, we did see some reduction in what we expected for January. February and March are looking like they are tracking in line or even slightly better than we are, as we mentioned, navigating this quite challenging metal supply chain situation. So I think we are in line and scanner trends look good. The energy category is still very strong and we are certainly seeing that in our portfolio. So that is obviously very beneficial for mix, again within our profit performance. Brazil, the market started in good shape I think 2% to 3% in January for the industry, followed a 4% Q4 performance for the industry. So a good recovery actually as we came into the summer season after the weakness, you know, in the middle of last year. And we are currently tracking ahead of that with some good customer mix. We are very positive about Q1 performance in Brazil. And then Europe is exactly where we saw it. So I think the industry is growing broadly where we saw it. We are in line with our forecast. We had a very strong Q1 last year. So, we see our growth being a bit second half weighted in Europe this year, but again, we see the industry exactly where we expected it. And if you take that all in around I think some very positive trends. We see no negative signs of the higher aluminum costs at the moment, which I know has been commented on quite broadly, but we certainly do not see that in our numbers or in the industry numbers at the moment, you know, so all very positive from our point of view. Matthew Roberts: Thank you, Ali. I appreciate that. Maybe on the capacity as you discussed in Europe, it seemed like Spain, I think, previously discussed that last call. It seemed like UK might be incremental, but any additional color you could provide on the timing of when that capacity is expected to start to ramp, any start-up costs and the related CapEx expected in 2026 or 2027, depending on the timing there? And in Europe, more broadly, some others seem to be adding in similar regions. So seems like demand is still humming along there, but how does all the capacity inform your supply-demand model there? Oliver Graham: Yeah. Look, it feels very tight, the market at the moment, I think we think it is running potentially even in the high 90s utilization as an industry. You have seen our peers' volume performance at the back end of last year and for the full year. And we also had a decent year despite some weakness in our beer portfolio. So I think that the industry backdrop is highly constructive and you are talking about the market now of nearly 100,000,000,000 cans, you know? So if it grows 3% to 5%, you know, it is a couple of can plants a year that are needed. And we certainly see shortages on specific sizes right across the continent and in certain regional pockets. So, I think the backdrop is very constructive. We have a strong position. We particularly have strong positions in those markets. And we have customers who are looking to grow and who need our support. So I think, you know, it is broadly in line with our share position that we are adding this kind of capacity with a line in each of those facilities. It is over the next two years or so, some possibly into the third year with the CapEx spread across that period. And I think we signaled a moderate increase to our overall capital guide for this year. So you can think of that as around 10% as an increase. So not very material, to be honest, as we already have some undergrowth CapEx in this year. So we regard these as very good projects in, you know, in a very constructive market environment. Matthew Roberts: So thank you again, Ali. Stephen Lyons: Thanks, Matt. Operator: We will go next to Josh Spector with UBS. Anoja Shah: Hi. Good morning. It is Anoja Shah, in for Josh. You reported some pretty good pickup in Brazil there. What are you thinking around World Cup for this year? And, you know, what kind of pickup, if any, and when exactly you think it might hit? Oliver Graham: Yeah. I mean, I think once we are in a low to mid guide, then I think we see that as broadly incorporating, you know, the World Cup effect and maybe it pushes more towards the mid. Obviously, Brazil can move very fast, you know, across the growth trajectory. We have seen it over the last few years. So obviously if Brazil go deep into the tournament and the weather is reasonable, then we could see some pickup. But I think we are comfortable with the sort of 3% to 5% guide for the market and that we are in line with that. But I think that should be constructive in, obviously, in the winter season, which is helpful. So we should see some good comps versus what was a pretty weak winter season last year. And then when do you get it? Yeah. You get it in the months running into the tournaments. Obviously, there will be some inventory build. And then we would expect to see some sell-through as the tournament goes. So you would expect to see it in Q2 pretty much. Anoja Shah: Right. Okay. Thank you. And then you also in North America, I think you did have a comment in the press release about lower input cost recovery in North America. What is that exactly? Is it stuff besides aluminum and tariffs and things that are an immediate pass-through? Like, is it a PPI sort of index where it is a once a year pass-through? And any outlook on that? Stefan Schellinger: Yeah. So I think we referred to some supply chain challenges and operational challenges relative to the metal situation. So that then triggers, you know, some operational actions, you know, we need to do shorter runs. We need to move volume within our manufacturing network. You know, some of the freight lanes get suboptimal. So it is a little bit of nonrecovered freight and a little bit of nonrecovered cost associated with those. So let us say a knock-on effect of those supply chain metal disruption causing operational disruption. Anoja Shah: So it does sound like that might persist through the first half then of this year. Is that right? Stefan Schellinger: Yeah. I think that is a fair assumption. Anoja Shah: Okay. Thank you. I will turn it over. Operator: Thank you. We will go next to Steven Diaz with Morgan Stanley. Steven Diaz: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just piggybacking off that last question. At the same time, you also noted in the release some operational efficiencies and other savings that you expect in 2026. Can you just give some details on, you know, the potential sizing and benefits and whether these improvements are in any specific regions, or if these improvements are just maybe, you know, some of these operational challenges kind of just falling off. Oliver Graham: No. I think that every year, we obviously make operational improvements and savings right across our network or regions. So they are the normal things: lightweighting the can, improving, you know, reducing spoilage, implementing our production system across our plants to drive best practice and lean activity. So I think, you know, we are just citing the fact that those savings are being delivered. We have set some, you know, challenging targets this year, but we expect to be able to deliver them and obviously that offsets some of the slight volume weakness we have in the North American business. So I think it is more a general comment right across the business. Steven Diaz: Okay. Great. That is helpful. And then, you know, it has been a few months since the Ardagh Group restructuring. Do you have any updates for us there? I know in the release, you said no changes to capital allocation, but any potential changes in strategy just given that? Oliver Graham: No. Absolutely not. I think Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s got a good strategy. It is been working. You know, you have seen the delivery in 2024 and 2025 and the guidance we are giving for 2026, and you have seen our outperformance in various markets and the drop-through into our profitability last year relative to our volume growth. So I certainly do not think anyone wants us to change strategy. And at the minute, as we have signaled, you know, capital allocation policy not changing either. So, I do not think there is anything to see here in terms of changes since the restructuring transaction. Steven Diaz: Thanks, Ali. Oliver Graham: Thanks. Operator: We will go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Brian Bergmeyer: This is actually Brian Bergmeyer filling in for Anthony. I appreciate the detail on slide eight on the share gain in Europe that can has realized over the last year. Are you able to maybe provide a sense of how penetrated the can is in Europe and maybe beer and soft drinks relative to North America, just as we kind of think about kind of the room to run for future share gain in Europe? Oliver Graham: Yeah. Much less penetrated, right? So, I mean, I think that is one of the arguments where there is a long way to run. You know, I think we think the can is 40% to 50% penetrated in North America. The UK is the most penetrated European market, sort of approaches those levels a bit less. You know, Germany is, you know, a quarter of that. So we have got a long way to run. The situation was very specific with very poorly designed deposit scheme implemented in 2003 with no return path for the can, the can was essentially delisted out of retail overnight. Has been on a long recovery ever since. And, you know, the German can market can grow 10% in the year. And, for example, last year, there was a 20% growth number for German soft drinks in cans. So, you know, pretty dramatic numbers for a staple packaging product. So yeah, and we see, you know, the UK very strong last year, showing many of the similar trends as the US with a lot of innovation going into the can and pretty strong anti-plastic sentiment. And obviously glass has had difficulties the last few years with the high energy costs. And then the can also really has a lot of sustainability credentials with very high recycling rates, high recycled content, and a pathway to a significant decarbonization through the measures the industry is taking right through the value chain. So I think you add all those things together and you get a strong set of prospects and the penetration rate just illustrates one of them. And then I think if you look at the growth rates, you know, we and our peers have posted for the last few years and the, you know, the projections we are all giving, it is clearly a very constructive backdrop for the European can market. Brian Bergmeyer: Got it. Appreciate that. Then just last question for me, and I can turn it over, is I am not sure if we are expecting any more kind of incremental headwinds in Europe from the aluminum conversion cost, maybe any PPI pass-throughs, and if we are, can you maybe provide a little detail if those are going to be better or worse on a year-over-year basis compared to last year? Thanks. I will turn it over. Stefan Schellinger: Yeah. No, I think we are through that. I think that was really predominantly a 2025 issue and we do not expect a material headwind in that regard. Operator: We will go next to Mike Roxland with Truist Securities. Mike Roxland: Yes. Thanks, Alistair, and Steve for taking my questions. Ali, you mentioned a couple times this is a transition year for the company, especially in North America. Seems like you lost a little bit of share to peers, then you are getting some new filling locations in 2027. To the extent you can comment on this, what end markets are those new filling locations occurring in? Are they with existing customers? Are they with new customers? And can you give us a sense also how you are contracted roughly for 2028? Oliver Graham: Sure. Yeah. Hi, Mike. So look, I think those filling locations are broadly aligned with our portfolio, so weighted more towards the soft drink side of the house, you know, like our portfolio. So those are principally those. There is some in there, but then, you know, in specialty sizes, which I think is obviously where we want to be. And, yeah, entirely with existing customers. So these are, you know, very long-term relationships where, you know, the quality of the customer service and the relationship is driving those gains. So, and I think, you know, it is only a transition year really in North America. I think, you know, Europe and Brazil, you know, pretty straightforwardly just tracking alongside the market. Mike Roxland: Got it. And then just, you know, for 2028, any early read just in terms of how you are seeing from items? Oliver Graham: Yeah. So I think the, I mean, we and our peers have commented on this, but we went through sort of significant contractual events in some of the big customers in 2024–2025. So we are very heavily contracted now, you know, through the next few years into the end of the decade. And I think that is been commonly commented on in the industry. Mike Roxland: Got it. That is very helpful, Ali. Thanks. And then just one quick one. Last quarter, and you may have mentioned this before, and if you did, I apologize. But last quarter, you mentioned being tight in certain specialty sizes in Europe. Caused you some growth last year. You started doing some, your intent to do some projects for Q4 into Q1 that give you additional capabilities for specialty. So where do those projects stand right now? And can you remind us what capital is involved in doing that? Are you in a position where you are not going to lose additional share because you have the functionality now in specialty to meet your customer needs. Oliver Graham: No. Thanks, Mike. Yeah. Good question. So the, yeah, the project is in our plant in France. It has gone very well, ramping up again ahead of expectations, giving us more specialty capability and different specialty capability and more regional, better regional alignment of supplies to also reduce freight, reduce out-of-pattern freight. So I think that is going well and yes, we are hopeful that positions us well for the coming season. Clear those trends are continuing in Europe, you know, a bit like North America with the specialty sizes growing. So we think, yeah, that puts us in a better position for this year, for sure. Mike Roxland: Got it. Good luck in 2026. Oliver Graham: Thanks a lot. Operator: We will go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Arun Viswanathan: Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on a strong 2025 and an outlook for 2026. So I guess just on the outlook, so it sounds like there are some customer mix issues that would maybe push you to the lower end versus industry growth. And also, would you highlight anything else there? Are you pretty much sold out as well, as maybe some of your competitors are? And then, I guess I will start with that. Thanks. Oliver Graham: Yeah. No. If we managed to convey that message, that is a misunderstanding. We definitely have no mix issues. We have mix gains, I think. So then it is only North America, but I think we signaled at the Q3 call that there were some contract resets that meant we have an overall volume reduction, you know, actually not really in specialty sizes mostly. Largely linked to some footprint changes in the market. That is footprint on the side of our customers who are rationalizing filling locations, but also footprint as a result of new can plants that were built post COVID and also footprint from contracts that we had entered into in the expectation of building additional capacity that when the growth came off in 2022, 2023, we did not build. So you added all that up, there were some logical resets in terms of facilities that were closer to the new customer footprint. So that was an overall volume effect, only North America, nothing to do with Europe or Brazil. And I think what we were trying to signal in the remarks and in the release is that we see positive mix effects in 2026 to offset some of that. Arun Viswanathan: Okay. Thanks. And then just a question on the metal side. So obviously, the Midwest premium is up significantly. Do you see that as potentially impacting can demand? I know there has been, you know, some substrate shift away from other substrates, including glass, as you noted. But are we approaching maybe a ceiling on that just given the, you know, some of this increase in the Midwest premium, and do you see that kind of changing or maybe even reversing at any time in the future given, you know, volatile tariff dynamics? Thanks. Oliver Graham: Yeah. Look. We would certainly hope it changes, because it is very extreme, and it, you know, does not make any sense in terms of, obviously, the aluminum supply chain. But so, yeah, we would certainly hope that it comes back into normal ranges at some point in the future. Yeah. I mean, I think that I mentioned it at the top of the call. We are not seeing any change, you know, at this point. And obviously customers and ourselves have hedges, you know, so we do not know exactly when people entered into hedges and when they roll off. So, you know, we would not be able to sensibly rule out any impact from this. But at the minute we do not see it. And again, there are some strong trends that are driving the growth, you know, in terms of the way innovation has gone into the can, the sort of retail shelf sets that have been put in place to accommodate that, the consumer reaction to cans versus plastic, some of the energy cost issues that we see and the overall cost issues we see on the glass side. So I think, you know, there are some big trends behind the growth of the can as well. And obviously, there may be some headwind at some point from the high aluminum cost but we are not seeing it in the data. We are not seeing it in the market data, and we are not seeing it in our sales at this point. Arun Viswanathan: Thanks for that. And if I could just ask on Europe, you mentioned growing your capacity in the UK and Spain. What is kind of the timeline? And what kind of impact should we expect that could contribute to your overall growth? Thanks. Oliver Graham: Yes. I mean, we said look over the next few years, we will, like we always do, those projects tend to cross a couple of calendar years. And so does the CapEx. Look, we are very tight. So all we are really doing there is giving ourselves the capability to grow with the market or, you know, maybe a tick ahead, but broadly with the market. So again, you know, I think you have heard pretty consistent commentary that the European market broadly is in a 3% to 4%. I think some of our peers would say 3% to 5%. It depends a bit on geographic mix, category mix. But if you are in that sort of range, which we expect to be, then, you know, we need to be adding this kind of capacity on a, you know, a reasonably regular basis. Operator: We will go next to Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Gabe Hajde: Hey. Good morning, Ollie, Stefan. I may have misheard you, Ollie, and I apologize. Did you mention Q4 EBITDA in Europe was, in fact, better than plan on metal timing effects? And, again, if I misheard you, I apologize. Does any of that carry over into the first half? And then the supply disruptions just to be clear, it is basically isolated to some of the rolling mill issues that we are having. And if you are willing to quantify maybe the hit that you had in Q4 2025, what you are embedding in for the first half of 2026? By our math, it would be maybe $5,000,000 to $8,000,000. And then a couple of follow-ons. Oliver Graham: Yeah. I mean, Gabe, I will let Stefan comment too, but I mean, that is reasonable. And the lower end of that range is sort of broadly where we saw Q4, I think. So that is fair, I think, and obviously, you know, giving guidance, including these sorts of thinking. Stefan, comment on that one. On the metal timing. Stefan Schellinger: Yeah. I think that is exactly right. We benefited from it, but it was not the entire EBITDA growth that was a result of metal timing. Oliver Graham: And I do not think it is a particular impact in H1 this year, right? Which is the other Gabe question. Yeah. I think it is, yeah, yeah. Gabe Hajde: Okay. So no carryover effect from metal timing in Europe. That was just isolated to Q4. Oliver Graham: Yes. And I mean, it does depend, Gabe, as you know, a bit on what happens with LME and Midwest. So obviously, cannot be absolutely certain because it depends a bit what happens, but there is nothing material in the plan. Gabe Hajde: Okay. Then I guess maybe to put a finer point, I mean, it sounds like we are talking about two additional lines, one in each plant in UK, Spain. And traditional yield out of those is still something a billion to a billion two units. Oliver Graham: Yeah. I think, I mean, we may start, you know, slightly shy of that, you know, as first phase. But again, you know, the lines are pretty modular now. So you can go up in a couple of steps from, you know, slightly below a billion. But yeah, these are the kinds of ranges we will be in. Gabe Hajde: Okay. And then one clarification or point on cash flow. Stefan, I think you mentioned lease principal payments $150,000,000 this year. And it is up pretty materially from $145,000,000 in 2025. Is that sort of at a steady state at this point? Or does that go up again maybe in 2026–2027? Stefan Schellinger: So, no, to be clear, I said $150,000,000. So apologies if that was not clear, but it is $150,000,000. So it is $5,000,000 higher than what we have seen in 2025. And that should be a number, you know, that should be relatively steady going forward. Gabe Hajde: Perfect. Thank you. That is it. Oliver Graham: Thanks, Gabe. Operator: At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Oliver Graham for additional or closing remarks. Oliver Graham: Thanks, Jennifer. So just to recap, in 2025, we reported global shipments growth of over 3% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%. We finished the year strongly as fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA exceeded our guidance with both segments performing ahead of our expectations. We are looking forward to a good performance again in 2026 and are guiding for EBITDA in the range of $750,000,000 to $775,000,000. Thanks for your time today, we look forward to talking to you again at our Q1 results. Operator: This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. Should you buy stock in Ardagh Metal Packaging right now? Before you buy stock in Ardagh Metal Packaging, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Ardagh Metal Packaging wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. 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As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy . Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Earnings Transcript was originally published by The Motley Fool View Comments Terms and Privacy Policy Privacy Dashboard More Info
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