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• Content META

  Title	Benchmark drops $1.33
  ID	5783921
  External ID	7455520420
  Author	Unknown
  Published Date	Jan. 10, 2025, 8:08 a.m.
  Summary	The Agriculture Department announced the final Federal order Class III milk price of 2024 at $18.62 per hundredweight, down $1.33 from November, but $2.58 above December 2023. It’s the lowest Class II
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  URL	https://www.thefencepost.com/news/benchmark-drops-1-33/
  Sentiment	Negative: 0.96677    Neutral: 0.01945    Positive: 0.01377
  Relevance	0.00556

• Content Details

  Content ID	3500986
  Key	f62c6927-4d56-4a61-b4c7-b2afaa6962a6
  Content	The Agriculture Department announced the final Federal order Class III milk price of 2024 at $18.62 per hundredweight, down $1.33 from November, but $2.58 above December 2023. It’s the lowest Class III price since May and put the 2024 average at $18.89, up from $17.02 in 2023, and compares to $21.96 in 2022. Friday’s Class III futures settlements showed January at $20.45; February, $20.56; and March at $20.22. The Class IV price is $20.74, down 38 cents from November, but $1.51 above a year ago. It’s the lowest Class IV price since May and the 2024 Class IV average is $20.75, up from $19.12 in 2023, and compares to $24.47 in 2022. Meanwhile, another drop in the All Milk Price and higher corn prices pulled the November milk feed price ratio lower for the second month in a row, but it was above the five-year average for the ninth month in a row. The latest Ag Prices report shows the ratio at 2.88, down from 2.96 in October, and compares to 2.10 in Nov. 2023. The All Milk Price averaged $24.20 per hundredweight (cwt.), with a 4.39% butterfat test, down $1 from October, which had a 4.26 test, but was $2.60 above Nov. 2023, which had a 4.31% test. The national corn price averaged $4.07 per bushel, up 8 cents from October but was 59 cents below a year ago. Soybeans averaged $9.84 per bushel, down 7 cents from October and $3.16 per bushel below a year ago. Alfalfa hay averaged $165 per ton, down $8 from October, and $44 per ton below a year ago. Looking at the cow side of the ledger; the November average cull price for beef and dairy combined was at $124 per cwt., down $4 from October, but $20 above Nov. 2023, and $52.40 above the 2011 base average. Milk production margins dropped for the second month in a row but remained at historically high levels and 90 cents per cwt. below October, according to dairy economist Bill Brooks, of Stoneheart Consulting in Dearborn, Mo. “Income over feed costs in November were above $15 per cwt. for the ninth time in history at $15.80, and above the $8 per cwt. level needed for steady to higher milk production for the 13th month in a row,” Brooks said. “Input prices were mostly lower in November with all three input commodities remaining in the top 11 for November all-time. Feed costs were the eighth highest ever for the month of November and decreased 10 cents per hundredweight from October. The November All-Milk price returned to the top 10 all-time, at the second highest recorded,” according to Brooks. Milk income over feed costs for 2024, using Dec. 31 CME settling futures prices for Class III milk, corn, and soybeans plus the Stoneheart forecast for alfalfa hay, are expected to be $13.37 per cwt., a gain of 7 cents per cwt. versus last month’s estimate. Income over feed in 2024 would be above the level needed to maintain or grow milk production,” Brooks said, “and up $5.37 per cwt. from 2023’s level.” Looking at 2025, Brooks said “Milk income over feed costs are expected to be $14.09 per cwt., a gain of 72 cents per cwt. versus 2024. Income over feed in 2025 would be above the level needed to maintain or grow milk production, and down 71 cents per cwt. from last month’s estimate,” he said. U.S. milk output is hesitating due to bird flu. The Agriculture Department’s latest preliminary data shows November output at 17.9 billion pounds, down 1.0% from Nov. 2023, after inching up 0.4% in October. Output in the top 24 states totaled 17.2 billion, down 0.8%, after rising 0.6% in October. October data was revised up 35 million pounds from last month and up 32 million in the top 24 states. November cow numbers were down 5,000 head from October, though the October count was raised 5,000. The herd is up 20,000 from a year ago and 42,000 more than the January count. The 24-State count, at 8.9 million head, was down 2,000 from October, but 32,000 more than a year ago. October output per cow in the 50 states averaged 1,909 pounds, down 23 pounds or 1.2% from a year ago, first YOY decline since June. The 24-State average, at 1,925 pounds, was down 22 pounds or 1.1% from a year ago. California production, which represents about 20% of U.S. milk output, again took a big hit from avian influenza and saw the largest YoY decline ever, according to StoneX, with data back to 1950. Output plunged to 2.96 billion pounds, down a whopping 301 million or 9.2% from a year ago. Cow numbers were down 1,000 head and output per cow was down 175 pounds. October production was revised up 12 million pounds however, and resulted in output being down 3.5% from a year ago, instead of the 3.8% originally reported. The Dec. 19 “Daily Dairy Report” stated; “As of Dec. 17, avian influenza had infected 645 of California’s 1,070 dairy herds. Of these, 56 have emerged from quarantine after 30 days without a positive test. The number of infected California dairy herds last month more than doubled from 203 on Nov. 1 to 461 by Nov. 27.” California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency due to the rapid spread of bird flu there. Wisconsin’s November output, at 2.58 billion pounds, was down 8 million pounds or 0.3% from a year ago, on 4,000 fewer cows, and output per cow unchanged. Idaho was up 2.1%, thanks to 11,000 more cows and a 10 pound gain per cow. Kansas was up 2.6% on 5,000 more cows but output per cow was down 5 pounds. Michigan was up 0.5% on a 10 pound increase per cow. Cow numbers were unchanged. Minnesota was unchanged, thanks to a 30 pound gain per cow offsetting the loss of 7,000 cows. New York was up 1.2% on a 25 pound increase per cow, while cow numbers were unchanged. New Mexico was down 5.4% on 15,000 fewer cows, although output per cow was up 10 pounds. South Dakota was up 7.2%, thanks to 13,000 more cows and a 15 pound gain per cow. Oregon was down 1.5% on 3,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was up 15 pounds. Pennsylvania was up 1.0% on a 20 pound gain per cow offsetting a drop of 1,000 cows. Texas scored the biggest gain this month, up 7.3%, thanks to 40,000 more cows and a 20 pound increase per cow. Washington State was down 1.0% on a 25 pound drop per cow. Cow numbers were up 1,000 head. The impact of bird flu is significant and StoneX Dec. 19 “Early Morning Update” stated that farm milk expansions will be needed to fill new or expanded cheese plants. “In the three months from July through October U.S. farmers added 46,000 dairy cows to the milking herd. That is a 0.5% increase in just three months. They did this despite record tight heifers, record high replacement cow prices, the cost of building new barns, high interest rates, etc. How many more of these big expansions have been planned over the next year? In rough numbers it would take an additional 350,000 cows to fill the new processing capacity, when the capacity is running at 100%. So there could be another 50,000 or 100,000 or 150,000 more cows that could come into this herd in the next year,” StoneX said. “If the herd grew another 20,000 head in November that would help to cushion the weakness in California.” HighGround Dairy’s Betty Berning stated in the Dec. 23 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast that she believes U.S. dairy producers will meet the demand of expanded cheese plants. Most of it is in the Plains states, Kansas and Texas, and producers in those states have been expanding in response to the new capacity. She looks for growth in the Mountain and Plains states in 2025, leading to the question if demand will absorb the extra cheese. That remains to be seen, she said, however demand for protein is growing, as popular weight loss drug use drives consumers to eat more high protein foods of which dairy is a great source. Whey protein isolate production is setting records, according to Berning, as are other high protein dairy products, and they are being consumed, but there will also be more cheese available and that consumption remains to be seen. The Agriculture Department’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook reported that, as of Dec. 12, avian Influenza was confirmed in 16 states and 832 dairy herds. However, since the beginning of December, out of the 832 herds, the flu had been detected in 142 herds in California and one in Nevada. Affected cows and herds are quarantined until they recover and once recovered, most cows return to producing milk, according to the Outlook. USDA began its National Milk Testing Strategy, mandating raw milk samples be collected and tested from U.S. farms. The second round of states coming on board included Indiana, Maryland, Montana, New York, Ohio, Vermont and Washington. Cash dairy prices start 2025 above a year ago except on butter. The Cheddar blocks closed the shortened holiday week at $1.92 per pound, up 4.75 cents on the week and 48.50 cents above a year ago. The block’s Friday, Jan. 3, closings averaged $1.79 in 2024 and saw a low of $1.3925 per pound to a high of $2.2750. They averaged $1.73 in 2023 and ranged $1.3350 to $2.10 per pound. The barrels finished Friday at $1.83, 6.25 cents higher on the week, 42 cents above a year ago, and 9 cents below the blocks. CME sales totaled seven loads of block on the week and 47 for the month of December, up from 38 in November. Barrel sales totaled five for the week and 49 for the month, up from 27 in November. Cheese prices were pushing higher in the final trading days of 2024, according to Dairy Market News, and some Midwest contacts suggested that cheese markets may have reached their near-term basement and are steadying. Demand has been variant over the holiday weeks, as some processors reported continued strong demand while others noted a slowdown. Milk availability has grown in the region, as was expected during the holiday weeks. Milk handlers said the midweek holiday(s) gave them less capacity to work with, as spot milk prices in Christmas week were as low as $7-under Class III. New Year’s Eve saw spot milk loads from $4-under Class to 50 cents under Class, according to DMN. Cheese production in the west is mixed. Milk production has been strengthening in recent weeks leaving plenty for cheese making. Some plants ran lighter schedules New Year’s Week to accommodate the midweek holiday. Spot loads of some varieties were tight, while others were more widely available, says DMN. Domestic cheese demand is strong, though export interest is lighter. Cash butter fell to $2.5450 per pound Thursday, Jan. 2, but finished Friday at $2.5525, down 2.25 cents on the week, ending two weeks of gain, and was 2.25 cents below a year ago. There were 16 sales on the week and 94 for the month, up from 58 in November. Butter’s Friday closings averaged $2.86 per pound in 2024, ranging from a low of $2.4650, to a high of $3.1750. It topped $3 per pound for 19 weeks. It averaged $2.59 per pound in 2023, ranging from $2.2725 per pound to its record high $3.5025, and stayed above $3 per pound for six weeks in 2023. Central butter plant activity steadied following Christmas week, but some plant managers said churning would return to normalcy after New Year’s Day. Cream remains more than sufficient and is expected to remain so in the early weeks of 2025. Contracts for 2025 are reportedly favorable for processors, and spot cream demand may be slower, at least early in the new year. Butter sales have steadied as markets have found stable ground in the middle- to upper-$2.50s per pound. Cream is plentiful in the West and loads were reportedly trading at lower multiples, compared to mid-month levels. Butter production has been lighter in recent weeks due to the holidays and plant operators modifying shifts to accommodate the mid-week closures. Spot loads of butter were available. Demand has been mixed in recent weeks, though some contacts reported the end of year holidays put a slight damper on sales this week, according to DMN. Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at $1.3675 per pound, down 2 cents on the week but 19.50 cents above a year ago. Sales totaled 15 loads for the week and 81 for the month, up from 77 in November. Dry whey saw its Friday finish at 75 cents per pound, unchanged on the short week, but 33.75 cents above a year ago, with only one sale put on the board for the week. There were 29 CME sales for December, compared to 30 in November. More Like This, Tap A Topic
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  Publisher Name	The Fence Post
  Publisher URL	thefencepost.com
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  Trust Flow Score	32
  Citation Flow Score	33

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  Data Source Name	Quantexa News
  Data Source Type	news
  Data Source URL	https://app.aylien.com/dashboard
  Description	Welcome to Quantexa News API — the most powerful way to aggregate, filter, and integrate global news data into your apps and models.
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