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  Title	National Grid Share Price on 4 December 2025: Ofgem's £28bn Grid Upgrade, 6.12% Returns and What It All Means for NG and NGG Investors
  ID	28944800
  External ID	0f61bb99ce21f910f79478b1ed19f328
  Author	Marcin Frąckiewicz
  Published Date	Dec. 4, 2025, 5:35 a.m.
  Summary	National Grid Share Price on 4 December 2025: Ofgem's £28bn Grid Upgrade, 6.12% Returns and What It All Means for NG and NGG Investors - TechStock²
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  Content	Updated: 4 December 2025 National Grid's share price is back in focus today as the UK energy regulator Ofgem signs off a huge £28 billion funding package for Britain's gas and electricity networks and confirms key parameters for the next transmission price-control period (RIIO‑T3). Together with strong half‑year results, a new CEO and fresh AI initiatives in the US, the stock sits near its 12‑month highs – but with clear risks and only modest upside in most analyst models. [1] This article pulls together the latest National Grid share price data, today's regulatory news, analyst forecasts and technical signals as of 4 December 2025, to help readers understand what's really driving NG (LSE: NG.) and NGG (NYSE: NGG). As of the market close on 4 December 2025, National Grid's London‑listed shares traded around: c. 1,137–1,138p per share (sell/buy), (sell/buy), down from the previous close of 1,143.5p. [2] Key snapshot numbers from UK data providers: Day range: roughly 1,131.5p – 1,145.5p . [3] roughly . 52‑week range: about 909.8p – 1,183.5p – today's level is therefore near the upper end of the year's trading band. [4] about – today's level is therefore near the upper end of the year's trading band. Market capitalisation: ~ £56.4 billion . [5] ~ . Trailing P/E ratio: ~ 20.6x . [6] ~ . Dividend yield: about 4.1% based on historic dividends. [7] about based on historic dividends. 1‑year price performance: mid‑teens percentage gain (around +15–16%), and roughly +45% over five years. [8] In other words, the National Grid share price has recovered strongly from the post‑rights‑issue sell‑off in 2024 and is now trading close to its 12‑month highs, but eased slightly today as investors digested Ofgem's latest rulings. On the New York Stock Exchange, National Grid's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs): Recently traded around $76.5 per NGG, per NGG, With a 52‑week range of roughly $55.8 – $78.5 , and , and A dividend yield of just over 4%. [9] Some US‑focused valuation tools show: P/E ratio near 5.7x for NGG based on recent earnings, well below both the US market and utilities sector averages, suggesting the ADR looks optically cheap on some earnings metrics – though differences in accounting and one‑off items make direct comparison tricky. [10] The main macro driver for National Grid today is Ofgem's approval of around £28 billion of funding for Britain's gas and electricity transmission networks for the next RIIO‑3 price‑control period. [11] Key points from the regulator and press coverage: The £28bn is part of a wider plan that could total c. £90bn by 2031 , as the UK attempts its biggest grid expansion since the 1960s to connect more offshore wind, solar and future nuclear projects. [12] is part of a wider plan that could total , as the UK attempts its biggest grid expansion since the 1960s to connect more offshore wind, solar and future nuclear projects. The package is expected to raise average household bills by roughly £108 a year by 2031 , but Ofgem estimates that reduced system costs should offset much of that, leaving a net increase closer to £30 a year , or under £3 per month . [13] , but Ofgem estimates that reduced system costs should offset much of that, leaving a , or under . Regulators have trimmed several billion from energy companies' original proposals, arguing that they are protecting consumers while still allowing sufficient investment. [14] For National Grid, the important message is that the UK is committing, in regulation, to multi‑decade grid investment. That underpins future earnings and asset‑base growth – but with political scrutiny over customer bills. National Grid also confirmed that Ofgem has published its Final Determination for RIIO‑T3, the price‑control framework for its high‑voltage electricity transmission business in England and Wales from April 2026 to March 2031. [15] Headline number: Ofgem proposes a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing for National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET). [16] In its official response, National Grid: 'Welcomed' the recognition of the need for significant investment to almost double the amount of power the grid can transfer across the country , but , but Stressed it will now comb through the full package – including incentives and cost‑recovery mechanisms – to judge whether the framework is 'investable and workable'. A formal response is expected in early March 2026, once licence modifications have been consulted on. [17] Early‑session market commentary flagged that: National Grid shares slipped around 0.8% in London following the announcement, as investors digested the details and assessed how generous (or otherwise) the new parameters really are compared with prior expectations. [18] The 6.12% real equity return looks reasonably robust against history and real bond yields, but may be below what transmission owners argued was needed in earlier submissions. Other network operators such as SSE's SSEN Transmission offered similarly cautious initial responses, underlining that the sector will be poring over the small print for months. [19] For the National Grid share price, today's move suggests: No obvious regulatory shock – the stock remains close to its 12‑month high. – the stock remains close to its 12‑month high. But investors are warily neutral until they see how much of the proposed investment can actually earn the full 6.12% return and what extra obligations will come with it. The regulatory news lands against a backdrop of solid trading numbers. In early November, National Grid reported half‑year results for 2025/26 (six months to 30 September 2025) that were ahead of many expectations: [20] Underlying operating profit: about £2.29 billion , up roughly 12% year on year. about , up roughly year on year. Statutory operating profit: up around 17% to £1.53 billion , helped by regulated asset growth and favourable currency translation. up around to , helped by regulated asset growth and favourable currency translation. Underlying EPS: 29.8p , an increase of around 6% . , an increase of around . Record capital investment: around £5.1 billion in the half, with management guiding to over £11 billion for the full year. [21] Crucially, National Grid laid out medium‑term guidance for 2024/25–2028/29: Around £60 billion of cumulative capital investment, of cumulative capital investment, Driving group asset growth of c.10% per year , , And targeting underlying EPS growth of 6–8% per year from a 2024/25 baseline. [22] Regulatory gearing is expected to rise towards the mid‑60% area by March 2029 and then drift into the high‑60s as the RIIO‑T3 period progresses, underlining that this is a highly leveraged, capital‑intensive strategy. [23] For the share price, that translates into a classic utility trade‑off: Pros: Visible, largely regulated earnings growth and expanding asset base. Visible, largely regulated earnings growth and expanding asset base. Cons: Rising leverage and growing dependence on regulators and politicians remaining supportive. Income remains central to the National Grid investment case. From the latest results and subsequent filings: [24] For 2025/26 , the board has declared an interim dividend of 16.35p per share , about 3% higher than last year's 15.84p. , the board has declared an , about than last year's 15.84p. The ordinary shares went ex‑dividend on 20 November 2025 , with a record date of 21 November and payment due on 13 January 2026 . [25] , with a record date of and payment due on . ADR holders receive roughly $1.0657 per ADR for the same interim period. [26] for the same interim period. A scrip dividend option allows investors to take shares instead of cash, with a reference price recently set around 1,130.4p per ordinary share. [27] National Grid reiterates a policy of growing the dividend per share in line with UK CPIH inflation over the medium term, after rebasing the payout to reflect its large 2024 rights issue. [28] Based on current prices and historic dividends: The National Grid share price implies a trailing yield a little above 4%, and forward yields in the same ballpark if management hits its EPS and dividend growth targets. [29] For long‑term, income‑focused investors, that combination of mid‑single‑digit real EPS growth plus a ~4% cash yieldis exactly what many expect from a large regulated utility – albeit with the usual caveats on regulation and balance‑sheet risk. National Grid's multi‑year share‑price story is tightly bound to its mega‑capex plan. The group is in the midst of a £60bn investment drive from 2024/25 to 2028/29, almost doubling the pace of spending versus the previous five‑year period, with around 85% of capex labelled as 'green' and the vast majority in regulated networks rather than merchant businesses. [30] To help finance this, National Grid executed the UK's largest rights issue since the financial crisis in 2024: It raised about £6.8bn by offering 7 new shares for every 24 held , by offering , At an issue price of 645p , a discount of roughly 35% to the theoretical ex‑rights price at the time, , a discount of roughly to the theoretical ex‑rights price at the time, Issuing about 1.085bn new shares, equivalent to around 29% of the then‑existing share capital. [31] The announcement triggered a sharp sell‑off – the share price fell by a double‑digit percentage across two days – as investors digested dilution and a rebased dividend. However, some brokers (including Bank of America) argued that the rights issue de‑risked the balance sheet and extended earnings visibility to 2029, with price targets still implying upside from pre‑rights levels. [32] Today's National Grid share price back above £11 suggests the market has largely looked through that dilution and is now focused on execution of the grid build‑out and the regulatory returns that will flow from it. [33] To sharpen its focus on regulated infrastructure and free up capital, National Grid is also selling non‑core assets: In 2025 the group agreed to sell its Grain LNG import terminal to a consortium including Centrica and Energy Capital Partners for around £1.66bn , a deal which has now completed. [34] import terminal to a consortium including Centrica and Energy Capital Partners for around , a deal which has now completed. It has also exited its renewables development business, selling National Grid Renewables to Brookfield and partners. [35] These moves nudge National Grid further towards being a pure‑play regulated electricity and gas networks business, which typically commands higher valuation multiples but also ties fortunes even more closely to regulator decisions. Outside the UK, National Grid's US operations have their own growth and risk agenda. On 2 December 2025, the company announced a partnership with climate‑resilience platform Rhizome to deploy its gridFIRM AI system across transmission and distribution networks in Massachusetts, Upstate New York and parts of the UK. [36] According to the company: gridFIRM will map areas where utility assets could pose heightened wildfire risk , , Quantify and prioritise those risks, and Help planners choose cost‑effective mitigation projects while balancing safety, reliability and customer bills. [37] While this doesn't move the needle on earnings today, it matters for valuation because wildfire risk has become a serious investor concern in US utilities. Proactive risk‑management initiatives like this can influence regulators' views, insurance costs and, ultimately, allowed returns – all relevant to how markets price NGG. 2025 is also a transition year in the C‑suite. Long‑time CEO John Pettigrew retired in November after nearly a decade in the role. retired in November after nearly a decade in the role. Zoë Yujnovich, a former senior executive at Shell with extensive experience running large, regulated energy businesses, joined as CEO‑designate on 1 September 2025 and formally became Chief Executive on 17 November 2025. [38] Her background – managing multi‑billion‑dollar upstream and gas portfolios and negotiating with regulators – aligns closely with National Grid's challenge: executing a once‑in‑a‑generation grid upgrade under intense political and regulatory scrutiny. So far, commentary from brokers and the company itself frames her appointment as evolution, not revolution: continuity on strategy, with a stronger emphasis on delivery, safety and stakeholder management rather than radical strategic change. [39] Not all the news is positive. On 20 March 2025, a fire at National Grid's North Hyde substation near Heathrow Airport triggered a major outage that closed the airport for many hours and disrupted hundreds of thousands of passengers. [40] Subsequent reports and regulator actions include: A final review from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) concluding the incident stemmed from a 'preventable' technical fault tied to moisture ingress and a long‑identified bushing issue, with fire‑suppression systems also found to be inoperable. [41] concluding the incident stemmed from a tied to moisture ingress and a long‑identified bushing issue, with fire‑suppression systems also found to be inoperable. On 2 July 2025, Ofgem opened an enforcement investigation into whether National Grid Electricity Transmission breached licence conditions around asset condition and maintenance at North Hyde. [42] In parallel, several US law firms have launched securities‑law investigations and potential class actions targeting NGG ADR holders, referencing the Heathrow incident and subsequent share‑price moves. These are at an early stage and may ultimately be marketing exercises, but they add to the headline and litigation risk around the stock. [43] For investors, this cluster of issues matters because: It could lead to fines, mandated remediation and/or tighter future regulatory allowances , and , and It arrives just as National Grid is asking regulators and governments to back its £60bn investment plan, making asset‑health and safety performance a high‑stakes topic. Across major broker‑consensus platforms, the picture for the National Grid share price on the LSE is broadly consistent: Investing.com aggregates views from 15 analysts and reports an average 12‑month target price of about 1,180p , with a range of 1,070p–1,300p and an overall 'Buy' rating (9 Buys, 5 Holds, 1 Sell). That implies roughly 3–4% upside from today's ~1,137p, before dividends. [44] aggregates views from and reports an average , with a range of and an overall rating (9 Buys, 5 Holds, 1 Sell). That implies roughly from today's ~1,137p, before dividends. TipRanks lists an average target around 1,209p , suggesting about 5–6% upside versus recent prices, and also classifies the stock as a bullish consensus idea. [45] lists an average target around , suggesting about versus recent prices, and also classifies the stock as a idea. MarketBeat – which tracks a smaller analyst set – shows an average target of 1,200p, around 4.3% above the 1,150.5p price it uses in its calculations, and highlights that the consensus target is close to the current price, implying limited near‑term directional conviction. [46] In simple terms, most fundamental analysts see National Grid as fairly valued to slightly undervalued: Expected total returns over 12 months are dominated by the c.4% dividend yield , , With only low‑ to mid‑single‑digit capital upside baked into average price targets. For the US‑listed ADRs: Investing.com shows a three‑analyst average 12‑month target of about $76.1 per NGG, with a range from roughly $70 to $84 , and an overall 'Neutral' rating (one Buy, one Hold, one Sell). With the ADR currently near $76.5, that suggests the stock is very close to fair value on this view. [47] shows a per NGG, with a range from roughly , and an overall rating (one Buy, one Hold, one Sell). With the ADR currently near $76.5, that suggests the stock is on this view. MarketBeat collates targets from ten brokerages and reports an average target of around $80.40, about 5% abovethe latest price, alongside a 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating. [48] Other US‑facing research tools (for example, Barron's) show broadly similar high‑$70s price targets, reinforcing the view that NGG offers mid‑single‑digit potential upside plus a 4% yield, but is not a deep value play. [49] Short‑term and quant‑driven services are a bit more mixed: StockInvest.us currently classifies NG.L as a short‑term 'Sell candidate' , noting several negative technical signals (including a recent pivot‑top and a bearish MACD crossover). Yet its trend model still places the stock in the lower part of a strong rising channel , projecting around 14% potential upside over the next three months with a 90% probability band between roughly 1,293p and 1,387p – a reminder that technical models can give conflicting messages depending on which signal is emphasised. [50] currently classifies NG.L as a , noting several negative technical signals (including a recent pivot‑top and a bearish MACD crossover). Yet its trend model still places the stock in the , projecting around with a 90% probability band between roughly – a reminder that technical models can give conflicting messages depending on which signal is emphasised. US‑focused quant platform WallStreetZen highlights that NGG trades on a P/E around 5.7x , substantially below both the US utilities sector and the wider US equity market, flagging it as good value on earnings and book‑value metrics – albeit with limited forecast growth. [51] highlights that NGG trades on a , substantially below both the US utilities sector and the wider US equity market, flagging it as – albeit with limited forecast growth. An Investor's Business Daily note in October reported NGG's Relative Strength (RS) rating rising to 71, meaning it has outperformed about 71% of US stocks over the past year but is not yet in the >80 'leading stock' bracket. [52] Altogether, the balance of views looks like this: Fundamentals: Mild undervaluation with steady earnings growth and a protected dividend. Technicals: Uptrend intact but with short‑term wobble after a strong run. Risk‑reward: More of a steady income and infrastructure‑growth story than a high‑beta upside play. Looking beyond today's headlines, several factors are likely to shape NG and NGG through 2026: Final shape of RIIO‑T3 and other price controls Detailed licence conditions, incentive schemes and allowed cost‑of‑debt mechanisms will be refined in coming months. National Grid's promised response in early March 2026 will be closely watched for hints that the package is either comfortably investable – or so tight that further negotiations are needed. [53] Outcome of the North Hyde / Heathrow investigations Ofgem's enforcement process could result in financial penalties, mandated remedial investments or tighter asset‑health requirements, all of which would feed into perceptions of operational quality and regulatory goodwill. [54] Execution of the £60bn capex plan The group must deliver huge projects on time and on budget, while persuading regulators to allow full cost recovery. Any large overruns, big project delays or capex disallowances would undermine the core investment thesis. [55] Balance‑sheet and funding conditions With high gearing and reliance on long‑dated debt, National Grid is sensitive to interest rates and credit spreads. A renewed jump in yields or tightening debt markets would put pressure on future returns and potentially on the National Grid share price. [56] US regulatory and climate‑risk developments Wildfire‑risk management, AI and grid‑hardening investments in the US will interact with state‑level rate cases and climate‑policy debates, influencing growth and allowed returns in New York and New England. [57] Macroeconomics and politics UK and US inflation, bond yields and election‑driven energy‑policy shifts all feed directly into how investors value regulated utilities. Given the focus on bills, political pressure to keep allowed returns down will remain a structural risk. Putting it all together: The National Grid share price is trading near the top of its 12‑month range , reflecting a strong recovery since the 2024 rights issue and confidence in the £60bn investment story. [58] , reflecting a strong recovery since the 2024 rights issue and confidence in the £60bn investment story. Today's Ofgem decisions – both the £28bn grid package and the 6.12% allowed equity return for RIIO‑T3 – broadly validate that investment story , but don't appear generous enough to trigger a major re‑rating. The small share‑price dip suggests investors view the outcome as constructive but not game‑changing . [59] – both the £28bn grid package and the for RIIO‑T3 – broadly , but don't appear generous enough to trigger a major re‑rating. The small share‑price dip suggests investors view the outcome as . Fundamental forecasts generally point to low‑ to mid‑single‑digit price upside over 12 months , plus a c.4% dividend yield , consistent with a steady, income‑oriented utility rather than a high‑growth stock. [60] generally point to , plus a , consistent with a rather than a high‑growth stock. Risks around the Heathrow fire, regulatory investigations and rising leverage temper the story, even as National Grid invests in AI‑driven resilience and brings in a new CEO with heavy‑duty energy experience. [61] For readers tracking the stock, the core narrative after 4 December 2025 looks like this: National Grid is evolving into an infrastructure‑style growth‑and‑income vehicle: you're effectively being paid a mid‑single‑digit cash yield to help finance and own a slice of the future UK and US electricity grids – with returns capped by regulators and risks concentrated in execution, regulation and leverage. As always, this overview is information, not investment advice. Anyone considering buying or selling NG or NGG should weigh these factors against their own risk tolerance, tax position and portfolio needs, and, where necessary, seek qualified financial advice. What is the National Grid share price today (4 December 2025)? Around 1,137–1,138p on the LSE (NG.), and about $76.5 per ADR on the NYSE (NGG), both close to their 12‑month highs. [62] What is the dividend yield on National Grid? Based on recent payouts and today's price, the historic yield is about 4.1%, with an interim dividend of 16.35pdue to be paid in January 2026 and a policy of growing the dividend in line with UK CPIH inflation. [63] What do analysts expect for the National Grid share price over 12 months? Most broker‑consensus sources show average targets between roughly 1,180p and 1,210p for the London stock and around $76–$80 for the ADRs, implying modest upside of 3–6% plus dividends, with ratings clustered around 'Buy' to 'Moderate Buy' for NG / NGG and 'Neutral' for some ADR‑focused sets. [64] What are the biggest near‑term catalysts? Finalisation of RIIO‑T3 licence terms, the outcome of the North Hyde / Heathrow investigations, delivery of the £60bn capex plan, and shifts in bond yields and political sentiment on energy bills are all likely to be key drivers of the National Grid share price through 2026. [65] 1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.hl.co.uk, 3. www.hl.co.uk, 4. www.hl.co.uk, 5. www.hl.co.uk, 6. www.hl.co.uk, 7. www.hl.co.uk, 8. www.hl.co.uk, 9. www.wallstreetzen.com, 10. www.wallstreetzen.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.ft.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.nationalgrid.com, 16. www.nationalgrid.com, 17. www.nationalgrid.com, 18. www.lse.co.uk, 19. www.lse.co.uk, 20. www.londonstockexchange.com, 21. www.londonstockexchange.com, 22. www.nationalgrid.com, 23. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 24. www.jamessharp.co.uk, 25. stockinvest.us, 26. www.stocktitan.net, 27. www.stocktitan.net, 28. www.nationalgrid.com, 29. www.hl.co.uk, 30. www.ii.co.uk, 31. www.ii.co.uk, 32. www.ii.co.uk, 33. www.hl.co.uk, 34. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 35. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 36. www.nationalgridus.com, 37. www.nationalgridus.com, 38. www.nationalgrid.com, 39. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 40. www.neso.energy, 41. www.neso.energy, 42. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 43. www.wallstreetzen.com, 44. www.investing.com, 45. www.tipranks.com, 46. www.marketbeat.com, 47. www.investing.com, 48. www.marketbeat.com, 49. www.barrons.com, 50. stockinvest.us, 51. www.wallstreetzen.com, 52. www.investors.com, 53. www.investegate.co.uk, 54. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 55. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 56. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 57. www.nationalgridus.com, 58. www.hl.co.uk, 59. www.reuters.com, 60. www.investing.com, 61. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 62. www.hl.co.uk, 63. www.hl.co.uk, 64. www.investing.com, 65. www.investegate.co.uk investment National Grid Ofgem returns share price
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